Well gee, since everybody else seems to be pontificating on what yesterday’s attacks mean for the French presidential election, I might as well chime in. Do I have any special expertise? No. But I do listen regularly to French news programs from RFI and RTL, which means that I’ve been following the election fairly closely.

(ETA: I want to be clear up front that this is entirely a “horse race” post and not a “what’s good for France post.”)

The big theme seems to be that the attack helps Marine Le Pen. Yes and no. Sunday’s election is not winner take all but rather top two advance. Le Pen has consistently polled in the top two. She is expected to advance. Does the attack make that more likely? Perhaps. But frankly, not advancing would be a huge failure. Maybe her victory margin will be a little bit larger, but you don’t earn bonus points for surplus votes in the first round.

How about the other candidates? Currently Emmanuel Macron is the other favorite to advance. Macron is a young, pro-European centrist with no experience in elected office. He served as President François Hollande’s deputy secretary general (I’m honestly not sure what that means…perhaps akin to deputy chief of staff?) for two years and then as economy minister for another two. He opposes headscarf bans and called France’s colonial history a crime against humanity. His youth, inexperience, and tolerance could certainly combine to make him vulnerable after the attack.

If Macron loses enough votes to fall out of the top two, the likely beneficiary is François Fillon. Fillon is the candidate of “Les Républicains,” the conservative party formerly known as the UMP (Union for a Popular Movement – but pretty much only ever referred to by its initials). Fillon is one of the most conservative politicians in his party. He is older than Macron and has served as prime minister. He supports a military and police buildup. And he was the favorite to win the presidency a few months ago who has lost support because of a scandal involving allegedly fictitious employment in his legislative office for his wife and children. If enough voters put aside their concerns about the scandal and move to him because of his experience and hard line positions, then he could certainly advance to the second round instead of Macron.

And that’s where things get interesting for Le Pen. Currently, polls show Macron trouncing Le Pen in the second round, generally by more than twenty points. Fillon also polls ahead of Le Pen but by somewhat smaller margins. And while Le Pen’s stance on Islam and immigration is too extreme for many French people, she could probably beat Fillon in an election that was decided on economic issues. And Fillon’s own positions on Islam and immigration are far enough to the right that some anti-Le Pen voters may ultimately decide that he’s not enough of an improvement to warrant taking everything else that goes with him. I don’t think that it’s likely that Le Pen defeats Fillon in a one on one race, but I think it’s possible. And that’s how the attack could benefit her – not by swinging support to her but by swinging support to Fillon and thus setting up a more favorable match-up.

Before I go, I should note that there is one other candidate with a legitimate shot of advancing: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, representing the left. I’m not sure how the attack really affects his support. Perhaps some left-leaning Macron supporters decide to move to someone older and less enamored with Europe. Seems to me that his chances were slim before and are slim now. If he and Le Pen advance, then polls show him winning handily, and I expect that to hold even if Le Pen picks up some support related to the attack.